Democrats haven’t won a Governor or Senate race in Iowa since 2008. Raleigh, N.C. – Maggie Hassan’s high job approval rating and significant double-digit leads over five possible Republican challengers indicate that the incumbent Democratic governor will start out ahead for re-election in 2014 if she decides to run, according to PPP’s first New Hampshire poll since the 2012 election. Trump won North Carolina by less than a point, it’s definitely still a swing state. Hassan had an approval rating of 57% and a disapproval rating of 38%, while her opponent Havenstein had an approval rating of 46% and a disapproval rating of 33%. In all likelihood, he’ll win easily, but there’s one Republican who can give Van Hollen a run for his money. However, if Republicans are able to recruit Governor Chris Sununu, who just won by 30%, this could be a highly competitive race. Log In; Become a Member Considering that Hassan is the incumbent, has a superior approval rating, and holds a strong lead in the polls, it is safe to say that she has this election locked down so long as she sticks to a sensible platform that appeals to the … Depending on how moderate or progressive of a Senator Mark Kelly ends up being, he starts the cycle uphill in his battle for re-election. “New Hampshire is a good bellwether for fallout from the gun vote,” Public Policy Polling president Dean Debnam said in a statement. Currently, 58% of New Hampshire adults say they have a favorable opinion of Hassan, 14% have an unfavorable opinion, 8% are neutral, and 20% say they don’t know enough about her to say. The Democratic nominee, former State Senate Majority Leader Maggie Hassan, defeated the Republican nominee, attorney and 1996 gubernatorial nominee Ovide M. Lamontagne, 55% to 43%. Alaska, in it’s isolation, is arguably the state with the largest third-party presence in America. If he did, it still wouldn’t hurt Republican chances too severely. Biden improved on Hillary Clinton by 10 points in Utah. 0. Thank you for reading this article. Complicating things further is the passing of a ballot measure in the state that abolishes primaries. She lost by 7 points. The Arizona Republican party is becoming increasingly right-wing, nominating the most conservative candidate that may not have wide appeal among swing voters. The youngest person currently serving in the United States Senate was previously the attorney general of Missouri, defeating incumbent Claire McCaskill in a 2018 election. ... Maggie Hassan … > Q4 2019 approval rating: 38.0% 85% of Democrats approve of the job of Gov. Sad. Maryland – 2020 Result: Biden+32 – Last Senate Result: Van Hollen(D)+25. Is it a blue state like the Presidential and Congressional results suggest, or is it actually becoming more red, as the state results would indicate? Hassan’s approval rating has fallen from 50 percent in October to 43 percent in November, a drop found mainly among Democratic-leaning voters. > Q4 2019 approval rating: 51.0% Democrats would need a particularly outstanding candidate to come out of the woodwork to flip Iowa. In 2020, we saw a resurgence in split-ticket voting, and in the most crucial Senate races, it benefited Republicans. Independent/third-party candidates routinely get double-digits. Gubernatorial Approval Democratic Governor Maggie Hassan continues to have the approval of a majority of New Hampshire adults. Her father as a U.S. Secretary of Housing and Urban Development during the Johnson administration and both parents were politically active. Cory Gardner narrowly defeated the Democratic incumbent in 2014 to become senator there, and today is the only Republican serving Colorado in a statewide elected office. 84% of Democrats, 17% of Republicans and 50% of … According to a Public Policy Polling poll released Wednesday, the freshman senator’s approval rating has plunged to 44 percent, with 46 percent disapproving. Democrats have a wide bench full of potential candidates, such as congressmen Mark Pocan or Ron Kind, that could do a better job than Feingold. Former Senator Dean Heller could seek redemption. > Q4 2019 approval rating: 47.0% View Comments Love. New Hampshire – Biden+7 – Maggie Hassan(D)+<1 Joe Biden seriously outperformed expectations in New England, and particularly in New Hampshire. The state has surprised before: People didn't think that Republicans would lose the governor's mansion in 2004, either. Nonetheless, expect a drop in the frequency of posts for the next half year starting next year. Nevada – Biden+2 – Catherine Cortez Masto(D)+3. I’m doubtful Democrats can reach 2016 levels of Latino support against Marco Rubio, and older voters will swing back towards Republicans in the mid-term elections after shifting a bit towards Biden. Incumbent Republican Roy Blunt was caught sleeping in 2016. Democrat’s best chances are in … A Democratic senator with a net approval of +2 in an R+7 state has a PARS of +9 (2+7 = 9). While most of the “Safe” races for either party are boring affairs that I won’t get into much, I do want to address Colorado and Florida. > Q4 2019 approval rating: 35.0% Down the ballot, in the 2016 Senate race, then-Gov. The other resource I wish to provide is 2021-2022 Governor Ratings. In October, the last time that PPP surveyed voters about Ayotte, she had a 48-35 approval rating. It would be an epic battle not just between two of the state’s political heavyweights, but also a battle that will decide what New Hampshire really is. Senators Jeanne Shaheen and Maggie Hassan are at 57% and 53% respectively. It’s important to note that unlike most other Senators seeking re-election that last faced election in 2016, Mark Kelly won election in 2020, due to a special election caused by the death of John McCain. Colorado and Florida are former swing states. > Less popular senator: Republican Sen. Deb Fischer In Colorado, Michael Bennet performs well with college-educated white voters, and the major Republican politicians in Colorado are mostly right-wing ideologues who won’t be able to make major gains among those voters. Born in Boston in 1958, she has long been involved in government. Hogan, a moderate Trump-critic is one of the nation’s most popular governors. She’s liberal, but not usually progressive. I understand if you are still recovering from the 2020 election, or if you just want a break from politics. The only Democrat that flipped a Republican statewide office since then is Auditor Rob Sand. Some might wonder why I have North Carolina in Toss-Up, even after endangered Republican Senator Thom Tillis won re-election in 2020. RealClearPolitics - Election 2016 - New Hampshire Senate - Ayotte vs. Hassan She’s not a poor campaigner, but not an exceptional one either. He probably would’ve lost to spirited challenger Jason Kander had it not been for the Trump upset up ballot. Funny. With both members of the House up for reelection, 48 percent of 1st … Sen. Maggie Hassan's rating is 51 percent approval and 39 percent disapproval. That sounds like a narrow margin, but Floridians are a stubborn people, not many can be convinced to vote a different party. You have permission to edit this article. Maryland is a safe blue state, and on the surface, incumbent Democrat Chris Van Hollen appears a lock for re-election. A “grand slam” recruit for Republicans would be former governor Brian Sandoval, an extremely popular, moderate, Hispanic, easygoing guy who won re-election in 2014 by 46 points. The battle for the Senate in 2022 starts without one party holding a clear advantage, but both parties have reasons to hope that they might come to be heavier favorites. Edit Close. If the same state had a Republican senator with the same approval rating, the PARS would be -5 (2-7= -5). Ayotte's Approval Rating Down - Nashua, NH - New poll shows the senator's popularity plunge coincides with recent vote against background checks for gun purchases. 0. The nominations are wide open for both parties, but Democrats appear to have the stronger bench of candidates, such as congresspeople Conor Lamb or Chrissy Houlahan, Governor Tom Wolf, Lieutenant Governor John Fetterman, or Attorney General Josh Shapiro. You have permission to edit this article. In 2018, the best year for Democrats this decade, Florida still voted Republican. RealClearPolitics - Election 2016 - New Hampshire Senate - Ayotte vs. Hassan I want to set my expectations for this upcoming election cycle. ... Rubio’s approval rating, 46 percent positive to 41 percent negative, ticked up 1 point. Many national Republicans are hoping the governor will challenge Democratic Sen. Maggie Hassan – Sununu’s predecessor as governor – when she’s up for reelection in 2022. Funny. Maryland: Larry Hogan (R) 71 percent Scandal-tainted incumbent Senator Richard Burr is retiring. The good news for Republicans is that, unless the sitting President is particularly popular, the incumbent party, which is in this case the Democrats, typically loses congressional seats. If America begins to heal economically and socially under Biden, it could give Democrats everywhere a boost. But many of my fellow election nerds are also looking ahead. After serving on the New Hampshire State Senate and as governor, Maggie Hassan defeated the Republican incumbent to become a U.S. senator. View Comments Love. 7-term Senator Chuck Grassley would have little trouble getting re-elected, unless 2022 becomes a blue wave year. Joe Biden will be inaugurated on January 20th, 2021. Edit Close > Total congressional districts in the state: 12. Expect those to drop in early December. RealClearPolitics - Election 2016 - New Hampshire Senate - Ayotte vs. Hassan > Q4 2019 approval rating: 41.0% Net Approval Ratings. > Less popular senator: Democratic Sen. Maggie Hassan Republicans touted that as a win given that Pritzker spent $58 million of his own money to push for its approval. The consensus on both sides is that the era where Democrats can compete in Missouri has likely passed. Incumbent Republican Rob Portman has built his own brand and has won significant cross-over support in both of his Senate elections. He won by less than 25,000 votes in each of Wisconsin, Georgia, Arizona, and Nebraska’s 2nd congressional district. Gubernatorial Approval Democratic Governor Maggie Hassan continues to have the approval of a majority of New Hampshire residents. Governor Maggie Hassan led possible Republican challengers by double digits on our poll this weekend. She is fighting off a challenge from Democratic Gov. 0. Pennsylvania was just as competitive down ballot as it was on the Presidential level in 2020, so unless the political environment overwhelmingly favors one party, expect this race to be a nail-biter. Gov. Few in Wisconsin politics don’t remember Ron Johnson’s Lazarus-style comeback in 2016. Blunt hasn’t improved his approval ratings much since that election. Edit Close. > Least popular House member: Democratic Rep. Susie Lee, 3rd District Joe Biden will hopefully preside over a gradual return to normalcy in America, as COVID-19 vaccines become widely available in 2021. For Democrats, the good news is that Republicans have to defend four Senate seats in states Biden won, while no Democrat will have to face re-election in a Trump state. A lot depends on the political environment, will Wisconsinites view Ron Johnson as a self-serving career politician past his prime, or an important line of defense against the Democratic party’s more radical policies? That represents a 15 percent net drop from PPP’s previous poll in October. Wow. Congressman Brian Fitzpatrick would be a good recruit for Republicans. You have permission to edit this article. If you want more Toss-Up Central, visit my home page. If the four Toss-Ups on the map were evenly split between the parties, Republicans would escape with the narrowest possible margin, 51-49. Trump won Ohio in 2016 and 2020 by 8 points. On the surface, one might expect Democrats to make big gains in the Senate in 2022 because Republicans are defending more seats. That would be Governor Larry Hogan. Log In; Become a Member Governor Maggie Hassan led possible Republican challengers by double digits on our poll this weekend. Maggie Hassan; Men approve of job done by Sen. Kelly Ayotte: 53%-41%; Women narrowly disapprove of the job done by Sen. Kelly Ayotte: 46%-43% Voters have a 41%-29% approval for former Sen. Scott Brown, 30% are unsure; New England College will release its first 2016 NH Primary poll tomorrow, May 14. Incumbent Senator Maggie Hassan won by 0.1% in 2016, but she’s starting in a stronger position this cycle and has a solid approval rating. Instead, every candidate runs on the same primary ballot, and the 4 candidates with the most votes advance to a general election with ranked-choice voting. New Hampshire and Vermont are the only states in the country whose governors are elected every two years. Gubernatorial Approval Democratic Governor Maggie Hassan continues to have the approval of a majority of New Hampshire adults. Edit Close. Gov. Maggie Hassan's approval ratings are up.The WMUR Granite State Poll shows that Hassan's job approval rating is at 58 … Mike Lee is one of the Senate’s most conservative members and a Trump ally, so it wouldn’t be too surprising if he faces some adversity in his re-election campaign. > Only House member: Republican Rep. Greg Gianforte, state at-large > Less popular senator: Democratic Sen. Bob Menendez Hassan had an approval rating of 57% and a disapproval rating of 38%, while her opponent Havenstein had an approval rating of 46% and a disapproval rating of 33%. > Support in 2018 midterm election: 51.9% of the vote Ayotte was born in Nashua, New Hampshire. Blue-leaning Nevada used to be much bluer than neighboring Arizona. She attended Nashua High School and received a B.A. Edit Close. Gubernatorial Approval Democratic Governor Maggie Hassan continues to have the approval of a majority of New Hampshire residents. Hassan has a +19 job approval rating […] > Least popular House member: Republican Rep. Don Bacon, 2nd District You have permission to edit this article. Maggie Hassan. A combination of a savvy Democratic candidate who can appeal to suburban Trump voters and a toxic political environment for Republicans could push this seat into play. He was one of the few non-incumbent Democrats to out-perform Biden in their jurisdiction. View Comments Love. Sad. If House Democrats pass legislation that Americans approve of, only to have that legislation blocked or filibustered by the GOP, negative sentiments could turn towards Senate Republicans. The Democratic nominee, former State Senate Majority Leader Maggie Hassan, defeated the Republican nominee, attorney and 1996 gubernatorial nominee Ovide M. Lamontagne, 55% to 43%. Maggie Hassan. > Support in 2018 midterm election: 53.6% of the vote Utah: Gary Herbert (R) 64 percent: 9. > Support in 2018 midterm election: 51.0% of the vote The backlash to her decision has been swift and severe. She ranks favorable in Senate approval ratings where she holds 21 st place and maintains a 50% net approval rating. > Least popular House member: Democratic Rep. Andrew Kim, 3rd District Montana Nevada I will also post about congressional re-districting, which will happen in most states next year, and more posts reflecting on what we learned from the 2020 election. > Less popular senator: Democratic Sen. Maggie Hassan > Q4 2019 approval rating: 51.0% > Least popular House member: Democratic Rep. Chris Pappas, 1st District The state has surprised before: People didn't think that Republicans would lose the governor's mansion in 2004, either. 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